Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer reiterated a buy rating and $101 price target on Semler Scientific (SMLR) following the healthcare firm’s Q2 earnings release. Palmer highlighted a significant valuation disconnect: at a $35 share price, Semler’s market value closely aligns with the value of its bitcoin holdings, indicating negligible premium for strategic growth initiatives.
Semler Scientific has adopted a “slow money” approach to treasury management, prioritizing preservation of shareholder value over aggressive financing. Newly appointed Director of Bitcoin Strategy Joe Burnett detailed a multi-pronged plan to scale bitcoin reserves through operating cash flows, low-cost convertible debt and selective at-the-money equity issuances, all designed to mitigate dilution while amplifying upside leverage to BTC price appreciation.
As of July 31, Semler held 5,021 BTC with a $475.8 million cost basis and a market value of $586.2 million, representing an $110.4 million unrealized gain and a 31.3% year-to-date BTC yield. The company also maintains $100 million in 4.25% convertible notes due 2030, providing flexible capital for incremental bitcoin acquisitions during market drawdowns.
Benchmark’s valuation model incorporates the sum-of-the-parts analysis, attributing value to Semler’s core healthcare operations alongside its crypto treasury. The $101 target price assumes realization of strategic flexibility and debt-backed BTC purchases, forecasting 10,000 BTC by year-end 2025, 42,000 BTC in 2026 and 105,000 BTC in 2027.
Market NAV (mNAV) metrics place Semler’s current mNAV at 1.04, signaling a near one-to-one alignment between equity value and underlying bitcoin assets. That multiple contrasts sharply with peers trading at 1.2–1.5 mNAV, underscoring a material discount for Semler’s deliberate treasury strategy.
The upside optionality embedded in Semler’s capital plan may drive a rerating as execution milestones are met. Key catalysts include deployment of debt facilities for opportunistic BTC purchases, successful integration of CardioVanta in healthcare unit growth, and transparent communications on treasury accumulation targets.
Investors seeking exposure to passive bitcoin yield through a corporate treasury vehicle may find Semler’s slow-leverage model compelling. The combination of undervaluation, strategic capital structure, and disciplined acquisition policy forms the basis for a significant upside catalyst in the coming quarters.
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