The Bitcoin market is at a pivotal juncture, with a breach below the $100,000 support level poised to formally terminate the existing bull run. Recent analysis by renowned trader Roman highlights that the loss of this psychologically significant zone would mark the end of bullish momentum and could trigger a shift in sentiment across trading timeframes. The token’s price, which peaked above $125,000 in recent weeks, has retraced sharply, underscoring the delicate balance traders now face.
Roman’s commentary identifies several indicators signaling potential exhaustion. The daily and weekly relative strength index (RSI) has exhibited bearish divergences, with price highs failing to align with strength in momentum. This phenomenon typically precedes downside movements, as underlying buying pressure wanes even as prices linger at elevated levels. Trading volumes at multi-month highs have been conspicuously low, indicating that fewer participants are willing to buy into the latest highs, setting the stage for a deeper correction if support fails to hold.
From an on-chain perspective, data analytics platforms confirm the emergence of conflicting signals. Four-hour charts are showing early bullish divergences on RSI, suggesting that some market participants anticipate a rebound if the $100,000 level proves resilient. However, on lower timeframes, bears maintain a firm grip, with repeated tests of the support zone and aggressive selling at key inflection points. A decisive break below the lower bound of $98,000 could catalyze a broader sell-off, as automatic stop-loss orders and algorithmic trading strategies accelerate the drop.
Longer-term chart patterns further illuminate the stakes. The monthly candle formation for August recorded a notable bearish hammer after reaching an intra-month high, implying weakening buying interest. Should Bitcoin close September below the current support, it would mirror historical patterns in previous cycles where multi-month corrections followed key halving events. This scenario would challenge assumptions that institutional and retail adoption alone can sustain an uninterrupted uptrend.
Despite these headwinds, a contingent of analysts remains cautiously optimistic. Some traders view the six-figure zone as an ideal accumulation point, citing the value proposition of Bitcoin versus traditional inflation hedges. The potential for a fresh uptrend over the next six weeks hinges on renewed macro tailwinds, including anticipated interest rate cuts and declining dollar strength. If these factors materialize and support holds, Bitcoin could reclaim momentum and target new all-time highs before year-end.
Ultimately, the $100,000 level represents more than a price point; it is the demarcation between sustained bullish conviction and a paradigm shift in market psychology. A failure to defend this area could herald a transition to a consolidation phase, where traders reassess risk and reward amidst evolving macroeconomic and regulatory landscapes.
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