Bitcoin has maintained consolidation above the $115,000 level following recent Federal Reserve rate adjustments, with BlackRock’s IBIT spot Bitcoin ETF absorbing $3.1 billion in inflows over the past ten trading days. This sustained demand through one of the largest asset managers highlights institutional confidence in digital assets amidst macroeconomic uncertainty, underpinning short-term price stability and investor interest.
Meanwhile, prediction markets on Kalshi reflect growing bullish sentiment, with participants pricing a 69% probability of Bitcoin reaching $125,000 by November 2025. This surge in probability represents a one-percent increase over the prior 24 hours, with nearly $12 million wagered on the rally scenario. The uptick in prediction market activity often serves as a leading indicator for capital flows, potentially translating into fresh inflows as traders seek to capitalize on anticipated price milestones.
Technical indicators further support the optimistic outlook. A golden cross—where the 7-day moving average crosses above the 50-day moving average—remains intact at the $114,000 threshold, signaling a bullish trend continuation. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line is positioned at 915, well above the signal line at 492, with positive histogram bars reinforcing momentum strength. Immediate resistance resides at the 7-day SMA near $116,000, followed by psychological targets of $120,000 and $125,000, which align with prediction market forecasts. A decisive break above these levels, bolstered by ETF inflows, could propel Bitcoin toward new all-time highs in the coming weeks.
As the digital asset ecosystem matures, the interplay between institutional flows and retail-driven prediction markets may increasingly dictate price trajectories. With a sustained golden cross and significant ETF absorption providing foundational support, market participants are now closely monitoring on-chain metrics, liquidity profiles, and broader macroeconomic cues to gauge potential inflection points. Should investor confidence persist and technical thresholds be breached, the pathway to a $125,000 rally appears increasingly plausible under current market dynamics.
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