Bitcoin (BTC) experienced renewed weakness on Thursday, plunging below $100,000 during early U.S. hours after bouncing above $104,000 overnight. The drop extended a trend of underperformance during East Coast trading sessions that has persisted throughout November.
Market analysts attribute the selloff to evaporating liquidity linked to the recent government shutdown, which reversed typical fiscal deficits and tightened cash availability in financial markets. A fiscal surplus of $198 billion in September marked one of the driest periods for liquidity in years, exacerbating risk-off dynamics across asset classes.
Crypto-linked equities suffered heavy losses alongside BTC. Major miners and infrastructure providers saw share prices tumble: Bitdeer Inc. plummeted 19%, Bitfarms dropped 13%, and Cipher Mining and Iris Energy both lost over 10%. Broader crypto-equity ETF flows indicated significant outflows, reflecting heightened risk aversion among institutional allocators.
Technical charts reveal that BTC’s failure to hold $100,000 support has increased the probability of a deeper correction toward the $95,000 zone. On-chain metrics show sustained withdrawals from exchange wallets, suggesting that long-term holders view lower price levels as buying opportunities, though realized losses among recent buyers remain elevated.
The market’s rate-cut expectations have also reset. Fed communications signaled a 50/50 probability of a December rate cut, down from near certainty earlier in the quarter. Reduced bets on aggressive monetary easing have weighed disproportionately on high-volatility assets like Bitcoin.
Derivative markets reflect the shift: perpetual swap funding rates swung negative as short positions dominated, and options skew showed elevated put premiums, highlighting hedging demand against further downside. Open interest across futures platforms declined as leveraged long positions unwound.
Despite the downturn, some analysts anticipate a liquidity rebound once fiscal flows resume with renewed government funding. Expectations of fresh fiscal largess under the current administration may reopen bid support for cryptocurrencies, potentially triggering a relief rally heading into year-end.
Investors will closely monitor upcoming economic data and Fed commentary for confirmation of shifting liquidity conditions. A sustained recovery above $100,000 would require renewed fiscal or monetary accommodation, while continued rate-cut doubts could prolong BTC’s struggle below key price thresholds.
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