Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value ratio (MVRV) has climbed to +21%, indicating that the average Bitcoin holder who acquired coins over the past year stands firmly in profit.
This elevated MVRV level historically corresponds with periods of consolidation and increased risk of profit-taking, rather than sustained rallies.
Analysis from onchain sensor Santiment highlights that while the reading is not at extreme historical levels, it qualifies as a “mild danger zone” for upside momentum.
Bitcoin traded at $115,800 at the time of the report, approximately 6% below its all-time high of $124,128 reached recently.
Bitfinex analysts noted that the recent rally lacked fresh macroeconomic catalysts, causing the surge toward record highs to fizzle out.
A consolidation phase may ensue, allowing holders to reassess positions ahead of key events such as Fed rate decisions and global economic data releases.
Short positions have been accumulating, with over $2.2 billion in open shorts at risk of liquidation if Bitcoin approaches prior highs again.
Long-dormant onchain data suggests a balanced market sentiment as whales remain confident but cautious, avoiding large-scale liquidations.
Retail participation has not surged, reducing the probability of a parabolic move without external triggers.
Overall, technical and onchain indicators converge on a neutral bias, with profit-taking a significant headwind until clear catalysts emerge.
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