Bitcoin price saw a strong Friday rebound, climbing past the $112,000 level as market participants positioned for the coming Federal Reserve meeting. Traders have priced in more than a 98% probability of a 25 basis-point rate cut, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
On-chain data showed a clear uptick in trader activity at the top of the recent corridor. Volume on major exchanges increased by 20%, with persistent bids above $112,000. Spot and derivatives metrics both reflected risk-on sentiment, as futures open interest rose 4% in the last 24 hours while funding rates held neutral to positive levels, indicating balanced positioning between longs and shorts.
Technical indicators signaled bullish momentum. The one-hour RSI moved from neutral to overbought territory, while MACD crossed above its signal line, suggesting strengthening upside bias. Key resistance at $113,000 emerged as the next target, with traders noting that reclaiming that level could open the path to $118,000.
Market analysts highlighted the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern forming on the daily chart, pointing to a measured move toward $123,000 if neckline resistance holds. Volume-weighted average price (VWAP) levels provided support at $110,500 and acted as a reliable intraday buy zone during Friday’s rally.
Institutional flows played a pivotal role in the price action. Volumes in spot Bitcoin ETFs showed a net $150 million inflow, with major funds such as IBIT and FBTC registering allocations above their 30-day averages. CME-listed standard futures saw a tick-up in block trades, while basis spreads on regulated exchanges narrowed, reflecting reduced hedging costs.
Correlation with traditional assets diverged. While S&P 500 futures posted modest gains, gold remained range-bound near $2,150. Traders attributed the strength in Bitcoin to a unique hedge narrative, built around a potential Fed pivot following cooler inflation prints. This narrative was underscored by comments from trading resources noting that global central bank easing was accelerating at the fastest pace since 2020.
Outlook for the week centers on the Oct. 29 FOMC meeting. Analysts expect any dovish surprise to trigger additional crypto rally, with Bitcoin potentially extending gains beyond $115,000. Conversely, failure to confirm rate-cut projections could result in a pullback to key support levels near $108,000.
All trading risks remain in place. Market participants prepare for potential volatility spikes around release times for GDP growth data and personal consumption expenditures readings, which could recalibrate Fed policy expectations and impact crypto positions accordingly.
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