Jon Glover, CIO of Ledn and Elliott Wave specialist, has declared that bitcoin’s five-wave bullish pattern is complete and that a new bear market phase may already be underway. Following bitcoin’s decline from $126,000 to $104,000 in October 2025, Glover forecasts a further descent toward $70,000 or lower.
According to Wave Theory, market cycles exhibit predictable five-wave structures in the direction of the primary trend, followed by three corrective waves. Glover asserts that the five-wave advance culminating earlier this month marks the end of the bull phase.
Glover’s analysis factors in recent failure to hold above $125,000, which he argues signals waning upward momentum. The subsequent drop to $105,000 confirmed a breach of critical support, prompting his bearish outlook that could persist until late 2026.
The analyst highlights that put options on Deribit are trading at premiums relative to calls, indicating that institutional and retail traders are positioning for downside risk. Open interest in protective instruments suggests growing demand for hedge instruments.
Glover acknowledges the remote possibility of a retest of the all-time high at $124,000, but emphasizes that market structure signals favor a downtrend. He advises market participants to prepare for prolonged volatility and potential sub-$70,000 levels over the next several quarters.
Historically, bitcoin has entered bear markets approximately 18 months after each halving event. The most recent halving occurred in April 2024, aligning with the expected timing of a corrective cycle under Wave Theory frameworks.
Technical charts illustrate alternative scenarios, with an “orange path” suggesting a brief rebound to $145,000 and a “yellow path” indicating a completed high. Glover favors the yellow path, citing the structural breakdown below key trendlines.
While some traders focus on fundamental catalysts such as ETF inflows and corporate adoption, Glover maintains that primary price dynamics are governed by collective psychology and wave counts rather than macro events.
The bearish projection underscores a shift in market sentiment, with cautionary narratives supplanting previous bullish convictions. Traders and investors are advised to review risk management practices, including position sizing and use of stop orders, to navigate potential drawdowns.
Overall, Glover’s forecast presents a rigorous Wave Theory interpretation that suggests substantial downside risk remains, challenging the expectation of continued bull-market gains through year-end.
Comments (0)