Bitcoin’s price action on the four-hour timeframe has formed a textbook symmetric triangle, marked by a descending upper trendline connecting successive lower highs and an ascending lower trendline tracing higher lows since July 2025. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez, sharing his chart on X, noted that price compression within this pattern increases the probability of a volatility expansion. Should BTC breach the upper boundary near $83,500–$84,000, Martinez projects a bullish 15 percent surge that would target the $95,000 level, a critical milestone that aligns with the triangle’s measured move principle.
Martinez’s analysis emphasizes the importance of the $87,000 confluence zone, where the 50-day and 200-day moving averages intersect a prior swing high. This area historically functioned as resistance, and a clear break above it would confirm bullish momentum. Conversely, failure to reclaim this level could result in a retest of support near $82,000, with further downside risk extending toward $78,000. Volume patterns support the bullish thesis, as breakout attempts above the triangle’s upper trendline have coincided with above-average buy volumes, suggesting genuine directional conviction rather than false moves.
On-chain metrics reinforce the technical setup. Glassnode data shows that short positions on major derivatives exchanges have decreased by 40 percent over the past week, indicating a reduction in bearish bets. At the same time, Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has dipped from extreme high levels, historically a sign of profit-taking zones. This retreat in NUPL typically precedes sustained rallies, as sellers step aside, enabling fresh capital inflows.
Macro drivers remain supportive. US dollar index (DXY) has softened amid dovish Fed rhetoric, aiding risk-asset appetite. Bitcoin’s correlation with global equities has decoupled partially, making BTC a more standalone opportunity. Institutional involvement, measured by Grayscale Bitcoin Trust holdings and spot ETF accumulations, continues to propel long-term demand. Meanwhile, retail sentiment surveys have improved, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index shifting from “neutral” to “greed” territory over the last two weeks.
Traders should watch for a decisive four-hour close above the triangle’s apex resistance as confirmation of the bullish scenario. If realized, the path to $95,000 opens, followed by secondary targets at $100,000 and the all-time high near $108,000. Risk management strategies, including staggered profit-taking and adaptive stop-losses below key support levels, are recommended to navigate potential volatility. Failure to sustain breakout levels could prompt consolidation or retracement, underscoring the importance of adaptive trade management as Bitcoin navigates this critical junction in its 2025 bull cycle.
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