Bitwise, a leading crypto asset manager, released a comprehensive report forecasting that bitcoin’s price may climb to $1.3 million by 2035. This target reflects a compound annual growth rate of approximately 28.3%, underscoring the firm’s bullish outlook on cryptocurrency as an institutional asset class.
Growth Catalysts
The Bitwise analysis identifies three primary forces expected to drive bitcoin’s long-term appreciation:
- Institutional Adoption: Major financial institutions, including asset managers and corporate treasuries, have steadily increased bitcoin allocations. Enhanced custody solutions and regulated investment vehicles have lowered barriers for large-scale participants.
- Inflation Hedging: In an environment of potential monetary debasement, bitcoin’s fixed 21 million supply cap offers a scarce store of value. The report cites growing corporate and sovereign interest in bitcoin as a complement to traditional hedges like gold.
- Supply Dynamics: Bitcoin’s predetermined issuance schedule and halving events contribute to rising scarcity over time. With each halving reducing block rewards by 50%, downward supply pressure tends to intensify as demand grows.
Risk Factors
Despite the bullish case, Bitwise stresses that bitcoin’s path will be punctuated by significant drawdowns and volatility. Key risks highlighted include:
- Regulatory Shifts: Changes in policy across major jurisdictions—particularly the U.S., EU, and China—could impact market access, taxation, and institutional participation.
- Technological Threats: Advancements such as quantum computing pose potential vulnerabilities to cryptographic security, though Bitwise considers these secondary to near-term factors.
- Lack of Long-Term Data: Bitcoin’s relatively short history limits statistical confidence in multi-decade projections, requiring conservative modeling assumptions.
Bitwise emphasizes that while predicting a specific price entails uncertainty, the report serves as a scenario analysis for strategic asset allocation. By outlining downside risks and employing conservative growth estimates, the firm aims to offer a balanced perspective on bitcoin’s potential role within diversified portfolios.
As of August 22, 2025, bitcoin trades above $116,700, reflecting robust demand and improved regulatory clarity. Bitwise’s $1.3 million projection by 2035 highlights the asset’s evolving narrative: from a nascent digital experiment to a maturing institutional instrument. Investors and policymakers alike will monitor how efficiency, security, and policy frameworks shape bitcoin’s trajectory over the coming decade.
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