On August 14, 2025, Bitcoin’s realized price—a metric that represents the average price at which coins were last moved on-chain—reclaimed its 200-week moving average (200WMA) at $51,344. This crossover, the first since June 2022, is widely regarded by market veterans as a structural shift that often heralds the beginning of extended bull phases. The realized price now stands at $51,888, with on-chain analytics highlighting a growing cohort of long-term holders who have not transacted since prices fell below the 200WMA during the FTX-induced downturn.
Historical data shows that when the realized price crosses above the 200WMA and maintains momentum, subsequent rallies have delivered significant gains—39% from 2017-2018 cycle lows and over 325% in the 2020-2021 bull market. Such precedents fuel optimism that Bitcoin may be entering a similar structural bull environment, despite macrospeak of moderating inflation and geopolitical uncertainties. Institutional flows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products have accelerated, with total assets under management surpassing $50 billion in July.
Blockchain metrics further reveal a contracting supply on exchanges, as addresses holding more than one year’s worth of coins increase their cumulative balance. Exchange netflows remain negative, suggesting a reluctance by buyers to liquidate, while derivatives positioning shows a balanced call-put ratio, indicating cautious optimism among traders. Technical indicators on spot markets report a bullish momentum divergence on the RSI and a Golden Cross formation on the daily chart—signals that align with the 200WMA breakthrough.
Risk-off headwinds appear limited, as macro correlations with U.S. equities have weakened over recent months. Portfolio allocators at multi-strategy funds note that Bitcoin’s low correlation with government bonds and its positive Sharpe ratio have attracted fresh capital seeking uncorrelated returns. Surveys of family offices have shifted from ‘‘wait-and-see’’ to ‘‘build exposure’’ since Q2, with some planning incremental dollar-cost average purchases through year-end.
Nonetheless, caution remains warranted. Should the realized price falter back below the 200WMA, sellers may step in at key support levels near $50,000 and $48,500. Fed speakers this week and the upcoming U.S. PPI report will be closely monitored for any hint of monetary tightening delaying rate cuts. If the realized price can hold above the 200WMA through lower-volatility summer months, the path may clear for a sustainable advance, potentially targeting new all-time highs above $150,000 by Q1 2026. For now, on-chain and technical factors align to suggest that Bitcoin’s bull market may be resuming after a protracted consolidation phase.
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