Seasonal analysis highlights August as one of bitcoin’s weakest months historically, with average declines of 3.8% since 2013. In 2025, this pattern held true: bitcoin slumped 8% during August, driven by dwindling ETF inflows and profit-taking near record highs of $124,000. The sell-off forced bitcoin’s price below $109,000, approximately matching its Memorial Day opening, thus unwinding weeks of gains.
In contrast, ether outshone bitcoin with a 14% rise over August, reflecting strong inflows into spot ETH ETFs and growing on-chain staking activity. Bloomberg reports show $4 billion of inflows into ether ETFs versus $629 million for bitcoin ETFs, underscoring shifting capital preferences within crypto markets. This divergence emphasizes that ethereum’s narrative, tied to DeFi growth and staking rewards, resonated more strongly with investors amid Fed pivot hopes.
Seasonality studies label September as traditionally unfavorable for bitcoin, with eight out of twelve Septembers posting losses. Market veterans attribute this to post-summer profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing ahead of Q4. Glassnode data confirms historical bias, showing modest gains only following severe prior drawdowns. The 2025 August drop thus sets the stage for potential further downside, barring a major macro reversal.
Traders and investors are advised to heed seasonality signals while remaining vigilant for catalysts, such as Fed minutes, CPI releases, and geopolitical developments. Should negative seasonal patterns coincide with dovish central bank rhetoric, price may stabilize. However, if risk appetite falters, bitcoin could test support near $105,000. Overall, August’s rough performance and seasonal headwinds suggest caution in September trading strategies.
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