On-Chain Demand Mirrors Prior Cycles
Bitcoin demand has been expanding at an annualized rate of roughly 62,000 BTC per month since July, according to on-chain data from CryptoQuant. This growth rate aligns with the fourth-quarter performance of 2020, 2021, and 2024, each of which preceded significant price rallies. The observed pattern suggests that sustained accumulation by both institutional entities and large holders may set the stage for another late-year price advance.
Trader’s Realized Price as Bull Phase Signal
The Trader’s Realized Price (TRP) indicator, which compares spot market price against the average cost basis of investors, has established a critical threshold at approximately $116,000. Historical analysis shows that a sustained break above this level correlates with a transition into the bull phase of the market cycle, often followed by rapid price appreciation toward or beyond the upper valuation band defined by multi-year trends.
ETF and Whale Contributions
ETF products acquired 213,000 BTC in the fourth quarter of 2024, marking a 71% year-over-year increase in holdings. Whale addresses with balances between 100 and 10,000 BTC have contributed to a net annualized accumulation of 331,000 BTC, outpacing the growth rates recorded in previous bull-markets. The confluence of ETF inflows and whale-led accumulation creates a robust demand foundation ahead of potential breakouts.
Valuation Projections and Risks
Quantitative models based on bull-bear cycle deviations project a valuation band of $160,000 to $200,000 for Q4 2025, contingent on consolidation above the TRP threshold. Key risk factors include profit-taking by large holders, macroeconomic volatility if rate-cut expectations shift, and regulatory developments affecting ETF approvals. Traders are closely monitoring momentum indicators for confirmation of a decisive move above $124,500, the all-time high from mid-August.
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