Analyst Mark Palmer at Benchmark has reaffirmed a buy rating on Semler Scientific (SMLR), assigning a $101 price target based on the company’s Bitcoin treasury strategy and conservative capital allocation. Following the release of second-quarter earnings, Palmer highlighted that the stock trades at only 1.04 times its market NAV, indicating little premium for the firm’s planned leverage and expansion.
Semler Scientific holds 5,021 BTC at a cost basis of $475.8 million and a market value of $586.2 million, resulting in a $110.4 million unrealized gain and a 31.3% year-to-date yield. Management aims to scale holdings to 10,000 BTC by the end of 2025, 42,000 BTC by 2026 and 105,000 BTC by 2027, utilizing operating cash flows, low-cost convertible debt and selective at-the-money issuances to avoid shareholder dilution.
Benchmark’s valuation model employs a sum-of-the-parts framework, combining the expected future value of Semler’s Bitcoin reserves with its healthcare operations led by the CardioVanta unit. The firm’s deliberate “slow-money” approach contrasts with peers issuing equity to rapidly grow reserves, offering a risk-adjusted path to upside as Bitcoin prices appreciate.
Palmer argues that markets are failing to price in Semler’s strategic flexibility, particularly its capacity to deploy convertible notes—currently $100 million in 4.25% debt maturing in 2030—and expand reserves through disciplined use of capital markets. As volatility in Bitcoin markets moderates, the analyst sees increasing institutional adoption, which may drive recognition of the firm’s NAV multiple moving toward parity with peers holding diversified asset treasuries.
The $101 target represents more than three times the current $35 stock price, underscoring what Benchmark views as significant optionality. With clear milestones on reserve accumulation and debt-backed expansion, Semler Scientific is positioned to benefit from both Bitcoin price appreciation and credit market access as the company scales. Investors who participate at current levels could capture upside as the firm executes its treasury-driven growth trajectory.
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