Bitwise’s European head of research, André Dragosch, has presented a comparative study of gold and bitcoin’s hedge characteristics in 2025. The analysis leverages historical correlations, on-chain data, and market flows to assess each asset’s performance under differing macroeconomic conditions. Dragosch’s key finding asserts that gold retains its status as the optimal hedge against equity sell-offs due to its low or negative correlation with stocks, while bitcoin exhibits resilience when fixed-income markets face yield spikes and balance-sheet strains.
The research draws on equity crisis periods and treasury sell-offs to illustrate diverging asset behaviors. For instance, during the 2022 tech stock collapse, bitcoin’s losses reached 60% alongside equities, whereas gold posted modest gains. Conversely, in late 2023, when bond yields surged on debt ceiling concerns, bitcoin held ground while gold’s returns lagged. These patterns underpin Dragosch’s rule-of-thumb: allocate gold for equity protection, bitcoin for bond stress mitigation.
Empirical data for 2025 confirms the thesis: gold has appreciated more than 30% thus far, driven by tariffs, slowing growth fears, and political risk; bitcoin has advanced approximately 16%, buoyed by inflows into spot ETFs and institutional treasury allocations. The study emphasizes that a dual-asset approach may optimize risk-adjusted returns, as gold and bitcoin exhibit complementary hedging properties. Investors are thus encouraged to consider both assets within diversified portfolios rather than substituting one for the other.
While correlations can shift during short-term shocks or regulatory developments, Dragosch’s framework offers a clear segmentation of hedge functions. Gold’s strength lies in equity market downturns, bitcoin’s lies in fixed-income disruptions. As macro drivers evolve, portfolio managers may refine allocations to reflect real-time signals, but the underlying principle of differentiated hedges remains robust. The research concludes that abandoning gold entirely is premature; instead, combining both assets aligns with 2025’s complex risk landscape.
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