A report published by Citigroup in late September 2025 projects that stablecoin issuance could expand from $280 billion at the end of Q3 2025 to between $1.9 trillion and $4 trillion by 2030 under base and bull case scenarios respectively. Analysts attribute the upward revision to accelerating adoption of blockchain-based payment rails in corporate finance, e-commerce, and cross-border settlement.
Citi estimates that stablecoins may support up to $100 trillion in annual transaction volume in the base scenario, with potential to double under strong growth conditions. Transaction velocity assumptions align with fiat currency benchmarks, reflecting prospects for broad usage across retail and institutional channels. Stablecoin market capitalization climbed 40 percent in the first three quarters of 2025, reaching $280 billion on issuers’ holdings of high-quality collateral and robust on-chain activity.
In addition to forecasting stablecoin growth, the report introduces bank tokens as a competing form of programmable money. Tokenized bank deposits are expected to gain traction among corporates seeking enhanced transparency, embedded compliance, and direct integration with existing banking infrastructure. Under Citi's analysis, modest migration of traditional banking rails on-chain could propel bank token transaction volumes beyond $100 trillion by 2030, potentially surpassing stablecoin activity in certain segments.
Geographic distribution of stablecoin issuance remains heavily U.S.-dollar-denominated, accounting for over 90 percent of market share. However, jurisdictions such as Hong Kong and the United Arab Emirates are emerging as pilot hubs for localized digital currencies and bank tokens. Regulatory developments, including stablecoin licensing frameworks and central bank digital currency (CBDC) initiatives, are cited as key factors shaping market structure.
Citi frames stablecoins as complementary to broader digital money ecosystems. The report posits that stablecoins, bank tokens, and CBDCs will coexist, each serving distinct use cases and risk profiles. Stablecoins may excel in permissionless, global transactions, while bank tokens could capture enterprise operations requiring established governance and liquidity management.
Implications for financial institutions include the need to adapt treasury operations, collateral management strategies, and compliance protocols. Market participants are advised to engage with tokenization platforms, explore interoperability standards, and monitor regulatory proposals. The report underscores that stablecoin and token adoption represents a pivotal transformation of financial infrastructure, with material implications for payments, trade finance, and capital markets.
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