Revised Price Targets
On October 2, 2025, Citigroup announced adjustments to its cryptocurrency price forecasts, increasing its year-end target for ether and marginally reducing its bitcoin estimate following a period of shifting investor preferences. The update reflects evolving macroeconomic conditions and dynamic investor flows across digital assets.
Investor Flow Dynamics
Citi analysts highlighted that institutional and retail participants have been favoring yield-bearing tokens, notably ether, due to its staking rewards and decentralized finance utility. Bitcoin, commonly regarded as"digital gold," continues to attract demand as a store-of-value asset, but faces offsetting pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar and subdued precious metals benchmarks.
Updated Forecasts
The revised 2025 year-end target for bitcoin stands at $133,000, implying a potential upside of approximately 12% from its then current trading level near $118,747.48 as of 05:30 GMT. For ether, the new target of $4,500 represents an approximate 3% gain from levels around $4,375 during the same timeframe.
Longer-Term Outlook
Extending the horizon to 12 months, Citigroup projects bitcoin could climb to $181,000, while ether may reach $5,440, underpinned by anticipated inflows into exchange-traded funds, growth in digital asset treasuries, and accelerated adoption of blockchain-based financial services.
Downside Risks
In a bear-case scenario, Citigroup warns that recessionary pressures, rising interest rates, or regulatory clampdowns could drive bitcoin toward a downside threshold of $83,000. Ether’s downside remains challenging to model precisely due to network activity variability and shifts in DeFi liquidity provisioning.
Valuation Frameworks
Citi employs a multifaceted valuation methodology, combining cost-of-production metrics for bitcoin with risk-adjusted discounted cash flow models for ether, accounting for staking yield, network upgrades, and protocol-level revenue streams. The analysis underscores the role of on-chain metrics in shaping long-term value estimates.
Conclusions
The forecast revision signals a nuanced view of the digital asset landscape, where yield generation through staking and DeFi integration enhances ether’s appeal, while bitcoin maintains its core narrative as a hedge asset susceptible to broader economic conditions. Sustained demand from institutional investors remains a critical factor driving both tokens’ trajectories into 2026.
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