Forecast Overview
On Oct 2, 2025, at 14:56 UTC, Citi released a report updating its digital asset price forecasts: Bitcoin is projected to reach $133,000 by end-2025 and $181,000 by Oct 2026; Ether is seen at $4,500 and $5,400, respectively.
Drivers of the Forecast
Citi analysts cite sustained ETF inflows—now exceeding $58 billion in cumulative Bitcoin fund assets—and institutional adoption through regulated venues as primary upside catalysts. A pro-crypto policy environment in the U.S. and Europe further underpins demand, while DeFi-linked ETH staking yields support Ether’s value proposition.
Scenario Analysis
- Bull Case: Equity market rally and accelerating ETF cash flows could lift Bitcoin above $156,000 by year-end.
- Bear Case: A U.S. recession could depress Bitcoin to $83,000, with Ether at $3,200 under risk-off conditions.
Long-Term Outlook
Citi positions Bitcoin as a high-conviction digital store of value, likely to capture further institutional allocations via spot and derivatives products. Ether’s fundamentals benefit from network usage, DeFi activity, and phased protocol upgrades enhancing scalability and staking rewards.
Risks
Macro headwinds, regulatory tightening, or significant market stress could derail forecasts. Counterparty and operational risks in custody and trading platforms also remain considerations for institutional investors.
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