After a correction that saw Ethereum dip below $3,400, price action has stabilized, forming a strong base above that level. Trading above both $3,550 and the 100-hour Simple Moving Average indicates renewed on-chain demand. A bullish trend line support emerging around $3,620 underscores the resilience of this recovery phase.
Technical Landscape
- Support: $3,600 to $3,620 trend line.
- Immediate resistance: $3,720, aligning with the 61.8 % Fib retracement of the recent high-to-low move.
- Next targets: $3,750 (76.4 % Fib) and $3,800 pivotal level for bullish confirmation.
- Upside scenario: a clear break above $3,800 could catalyze momentum toward $4,000–$4,120.
- Downside risk: failure below $3,600 may trigger a retest of $3,500 or lower.
Several indicators support the bullish bias. The hourly MACD is trending higher within positive territory, signaling growing momentum. The RSI sits above the neutral 50 threshold, suggesting buyers are reasserting control after the recent sell-off.
Market Drivers
On-chain data shows rising network activity, with daily active addresses climbing by 10 % over the past week. DeFi platforms report increased capital inflows, reinforcing expectations of continued sector expansion. Meanwhile, major exchanges have seen a reduction in Ethereum reserves, hinting at accumulation off exchanges.
Institutional interest remains a critical factor. Ethereum ETF products attracted $2.3 billion in net inflows over two weeks, indicating sustained demand from large investors. Derivative markets reflect this trend, with open interest in ETH futures rising to a six-month high.
Outlook and Strategy
Traders may consider scaling into long positions on sustained holds above $3,620, with stops placed below $3,550. A successful breach of $3,750 could justify add-on entries targeting $4,000. Conversely, any decisive break below the trend line should prompt caution, with risk management adjusted accordingly.
Overall, Ethereum stands at a critical juncture. Clearing the immediate resistance cluster is key to validating the recovery narrative and unlocking further upside potential. Market participants should monitor macroeconomic events and technical confirmations in tandem to gauge momentum shifts.
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