Ether’s price action has entered a decisive phase after reclaiming the $4,000 level and testing resistance at $4,249 on Bitstamp. The token has traded within a rising channel since its June lows, a structure that propelled it from $100 to over $4,000 since 2015. Popular X trader Merlijn highlighted that Ether has twice tapped the upper boundary of this channel—first at the all-time high of $4,875 in November 2021 and again at lower highs in mid-2025. With the RSI now reset below overbought levels, momentum is coiling, setting the stage for a potential impulsive breakout above the channel ceiling.
According to Merlijn’s analysis, a successful breach of the channel could trigger a rapid ascent to $20,000, marking a 375 percent gain from current levels. Such a move would represent an unprecedented price discovery phase for Ether. The narrative is further supported by recent institutional buying signals and a short squeeze as ETH crosses key moving average thresholds. Audio commentary accompanying the chart noted that sustained weekly closes above the upper trendline would confirm the breakout and clear the path for all-time highs in early September.
On a relative basis, ETH/BTC remains in a consolidation range around its yearly open level, significantly below its peak of 0.0883 BTC recorded in January 2022. Achieving that relative high now would require approximately 150 percent upside in ETH/BTC. On-chain data from Glassnode indicates that long-term holders are accumulating, while Open Interest on Ether futures has reached new multi-year highs, reflecting strong commitment from derivatives traders. Funding rates across major exchanges have turned neutral to bullish, indicating balanced leverage flows.
Macro factors, such as U.S. dollar strength and U.S. monetary policy outlook, continue to influence crypto markets broadly. While Bitcoin’s trend remains a key driver for altcoin sentiment, Ether’s unique narrative—anchored in DeFi growth and major protocol upgrades—differentiates its price drivers. The upcoming Shanghai and Dencun upgrade timelines, which include improvements to staking rewards and rollup support, add fundamental weight to the technical setup.
Traders should monitor the $4,100–$4,200 zone as a pivotal support area and the ascending channel ceiling for breakout confirmation. Key resistance levels thereafter lie at $5,000 and $6,500, followed by psychological milestones at $10,000 and $20,000. Conversely, a reversal below $3,800 would undermine the bullish thesis, suggesting further consolidation. With momentum indicators aligned for a surge, Ether stands poised for a potential parabolic move, provided market conditions and on-chain sentiment remain supportive.
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