Key Findings
TRM Labs data shows total crypto inflows to Iranian platforms hit $3.7 billion from January to July, down 11% from the prior year. Major contributing factors include a 12-day conflict with Israel, widespread power outages, and an armed cyber campaign affecting service continuity.
Nobitex Security Breach
On June 18, the Predatory Sparrow group executed a $90 million hack on Nobitex, Iran’s largest exchange. The incident disrupted 87% of national transaction volume and prompted a surge in outflows toward foreign platforms lacking KYC checks.
Tether Blacklisting
Tether froze 42 Iranian-linked addresses on July 2 following U.S. sanctions compliance. The largest stablecoin issuer’s action drove users to diversify into DAI and other on-chain assets, momentarily exacerbating liquidity fragmentation.
Geopolitical Dynamics
The downturn coincided with a breakdown in 2025 nuclear talks and intensifying kinetic operations. Iranian users also rely on crypto for cross-border payments, particularly for AI and drone component procurement, to circumvent sanctions.
Outlook
Continued geopolitical tensions and regulatory pressure may sustain reduced trading volumes. However, Iran’s reliance on crypto for economic resilience suggests the downtrend may reverse if conflict de-escalates or alternative channels reopen.
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