Overview
Blockchain analytics platforms report that wallets with a holding period exceeding 155 days have reduced their Bitcoin balances by more than 300,000 BTC during the past month. This selling coincided with a peak price of $124,157 recorded early on August 14, 2025, followed by a pullback to near $123,000. On-chain metrics reveal a notable uptick in coin movements from addresses inactive for over a year.
On-Chain Movements and Trends
Data sourced from Bitcoin Magazine Pro indicates that the volume of coins moved by long-term holders surged as these entities took profits at fresh all-time highs. Hyblock liquidation heatmaps highlighted a cluster of forced closures in the $122,500–124,000 range, suggesting that related orders may have contributed to short squeezes that briefly pushed the price above resistance. Despite this, market odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September rose to 93.9%, according to CME FedWatch data, bolstering risk appetite among investors.
Institutional Flows and ETF Impact
Record inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs provided an additional layer of support. Farside Investors reported $65.9 million in net inflows to Bitcoin ETFs on Tuesday, while Ether ETFs captured $523.9 million. The first billion-dollar single-day inflow for an Ether ETF occurred on the same day, demonstrating heightened appetite across major crypto assets. These flows helped mitigate downward pressure from long-term selling and reinforced a bullish market structure.
Price Action and Technical Signals
Technical analysis shows consolidation above the psychological $118,000 level, which has seen accumulation from 1.88 million addresses acquiring 1.3 million BTC at that average price. Volatility, measured by implied metrics, contracted significantly, reaching levels not seen since September 2023. Call overwriting by major institutions has contributed to a volatility crush, signaling a maturing market that may now rely more on spot accumulation than speculative derivatives.
Market Sentiment and Outlook
Sentiment remains cautiously bullish. Analysts point to historical patterns where long-term holder sell phases are followed by phases of renewed accumulation. The current sell-off may mark a shift in market structure as profit-taking by early adopters gives way to fresh demand from new entrants. Key levels to watch include immediate support at $122,500 and resistance at $125,000, with macro catalysts such as U.S. inflation data and ETF approvals likely to influence near-term price trajectory.
Implications for Investors
Investors should monitor on-chain supply dynamics, especially movements from dormant wallets. Continued ETF inflows are expected to underpin price stability, while macroeconomic developments may trigger episodes of heightened volatility. Maintaining positions above established support zones could confirm resilience, whereas a break below $122,000 may open the door to deeper corrections.
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