On November 12, 2025, on-chain analytics platform CryptoOnchain identified a significant net outflow of 413,000 ETH from Binance, valued at over $1.4 billion. This represented the largest single-day Ethereum withdrawal since February and resulted in a net movement of 106,000 ETH off the exchange after accounting for inflows. The data underscores a trend among large holders—often termed “whales”—favoring private custody over exchange balances.
Transaction records show that top 10 whale transfers brought in 307,000 ETH, only to be eclipsed by the larger withdrawal. Analysts at CryptoQuant interpret these flows as an indicator of reduced available exchange supply, which, combined with an appreciation in on-chain accumulation metrics among wallets holding 10,000 to 100,000 ETH (up 52% year-to-date), could presage a supply-driven price rally.
Despite robust accumulation by large holders, Ethereum’s market dynamics remain influenced by heavy speculative activity. Binance reported record ETH trading volumes exceeding $6 trillion year-to-date across spot and derivatives. Open interest in futures markets has reached unprecedented highs, reflecting aggressive positioning. Elevated volumes near key technical levels—resistance around $3,700—suggest a tug-of-war between profit-taking and buy-the-dip strategies.
With the upcoming Fusaka upgrade scheduled for December 3, aimed at enhancing scalability and reducing fees, some investors may be reallocating capital in anticipation of improved network economics. Price memory from prior cycles indicates breakouts above local resistance can trigger momentum rallies, yet bearish sentiment persists while ETH trades below $3,400, following an August peak near $4,950.
Market technician commentary highlights that such large outflows, often perceived as bullish catalysts, must be weighed against macroeconomic factors including interest-rate policy signals and regulatory developments. A decisive breach of the $3,700 zone could initiate the next upward leg, while failure to maintain $3,000 support risks deeper retracement. For now, long-term holders’ actions suggest conviction in Ethereum’s fundamentals, pointing to an inflection period ahead.
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