Polymarket Bettors Doubt Trump Removing Fed Leaders

Polymarket data indicates that traders assign only a 10% likelihood to President Donald Trump successfully removing Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair before his term expires in May 2026. This market sentiment underscores broad confidence in the legal and institutional protections safeguarding central bank independence. Meanwhile, a separate contract tracking the potential dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook reflects a 27% probability of her ouster by December 31, 2025, signaling some risk perception around political pressure tactics.

Historical precedents highlight that while U.S. presidents have occasionally challenged Fed leadership—most notably Truman’s removal of Thomas McCabe in 1951 and Johnson’s confrontations with William McChesney Martin in the 1960s—outright firings remain rare and legally complex. Legal experts note that the Federal Reserve Act requires cause, such as misconduct or incapacity, to justify removal, making President Trump’s public accusations over mortgage fraud allegations against Governor Cook highly contentious.

Despite heightened political rhetoric, Bitcoin exhibited muted price reactions, trading near $110,200 with a modest 0.3% uptick following the news. Analysis of trading volumes shows limited shift in crypto positions, suggesting market participants view Fed governance developments as secondary to broader macro drivers, including interest rate expectations and liquidity conditions. The CoinDesk 20 index, tracking leading crypto assets, mirrored this lack of volatility, remaining below mid-morning levels.

Looking ahead, observers will monitor whether ensuing legal debates or congressional inquiries influence Polymarket odds. The persistence of low probability placements reflects faith in institutional checks and balances. Yet, the divergence between low removal odds for Powell and somewhat higher odds for Cook hints at nuanced trader expectations, likely driven by Cook’s personal circumstances and the novel nature of an attempt to dismiss a sitting Fed Governor for non-policy reasons.

For the crypto sector, the episode underscores the relative insulation of digital assets from direct political interference, even in scenarios of executive encroachment. As market participants calibrate positions, focus is expected to return to scheduled Fed communications, economic data releases, and central bank policy signals that more directly impact asset valuations in digital and traditional markets alike.