Bitcoin breached multiple technical support levels in early September, including the lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud and the 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages. These breakdowns have manifested a clear bearish shift in momentum, as evidenced by the Guppy Multiple Moving Average’s short-term exponential band crossing below its long-term counterpart. The weekly MACD histogram also flipped negative, confirming the shift from bullish to bearish territory.
The leading cryptocurrency recorded a 6.5% loss in August, ending a four-month winning streak as U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs suffered net outflows totaling $751 million. Key horizontal support at the May high of $111,965 and December high of $109,364 were violated, further underscoring the depth of the recent pullback. Despite hopes for rate cuts later in the year, short-term sentiment remains weak.
Historical seasonality amplifies downside risk in September, which has averaged a -3.49% return for Bitcoin since 2013, closing lower in eight of the past twelve Septembers. If sellers maintain control, the price could test the 200-day SMA near $101,366 and potentially slide toward the $100,000 mark. Bulls must reclaim $113,510 to negate the bearish outlook and avert a deeper sell-off.
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