On August 25, 2025, Trump administration crypto policy adviser David Bailey made a bold forecast during an industry event, asserting that Bitcoin is unlikely to enter a bear market for several years. Despite a recent pullback of roughly 10% from the mid-August all-time high near $124,000, Bailey emphasized that continuous buying pressure from sovereign wealth funds, banks, insurers, corporates and pension funds will underpin long-term price support.
Bailey’s comments come at a time when Bitcoin briefly dipped to an August bottom of $112,000 amid mixed macroeconomic signals and liquidations triggered by large leveraged positions. However, on-chain data indicates that institutional treasuries now hold over $215 billion worth of Bitcoin, spread across nearly 300 public companies and governmental entities. MicroStrategy leads with 629,457 BTC, while Marathon Digital and Marathon Digital–style treasury businesses collectively manage significant reserves as part of corporate hedging strategies.
“There’s not going to be another Bitcoin bear market for several years,” Bailey declared on social media, highlighting that institutions have scarcely penetrated even 0.01% of the total addressable market. His assertion reflects a broader shift in the digital asset landscape, where regulated investment vehicles such as spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted cumulative inflows exceeding $50 billion in 2025, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
Analysts remain divided over the sustainability of institutional buying. Critics point to heightened credit-cycle risks, especially for companies that leverage balance sheets to acquire non-yielding Bitcoin assets. Sentora research warns that negative carry positions could amplify stress during rate-hiking cycles, potentially pressuring treasury managers to rebalance portfolios if macro conditions deteriorate.
Nonetheless, the emergence of Bitcoin treasury firms and growing allocation mandates in endowments and insurance balance sheets signal a structural demand foundation. Funding rates in perpetual futures markets have surged to 9%—the highest level since February 2025—indicating that institutional participants are willing to pay premiums to build long exposures.
VanEck reaffirmed a year-end 2025 target of $180,000, citing robust inflows and high-frequency trading algorithms that target mid-cycle bear market scarcity. Meanwhile, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong maintained that price discovery will eventually test $1 million per BTC by 2030, conditional on comprehensive regulatory clarity and global central bank digital currency adoption.
As Bitcoin navigates cyclical corrections, Bailey’s no-bear-market thesis underscores a paradigm shift: the asset class is maturing beyond retail speculation into an institutional asset class capable of underpinning multi-trillion-dollar portfolios. Market participants will closely observe whether such a trajectory holds amid evolving monetary policies and geopolitics in the years ahead.
Comments (0)