XRP Slumps After Failed Breakouts Above $3 – What’s Next

Price Rejection at Resistance

XRP attempted a breakout above $3.00 on September 9–10 but was met with robust selling pressure near $3.02. Volume-driven liquidation erased initial gains, causing XRP to decline to $2.94 by session close. The swift reversal highlights institutional influence and key technical levels governing market structure.

Key Technical Observations

• Resistance: Repeated failures above $3.02 suggest a strong supply zone that may cap further upside without fresh catalyst.
• Support: The $2.94–$2.96 band held as a short-term accumulation zone during intraday declines.
• Momentum: RSI readings show an early bullish divergence, though exchange reserves near 12-month highs add bearish pressure.
• Range: XRP traded in a 3% intraday range, indicating elevated volatility despite broader market calm.

Fundamental Catalysts

Market participants are closely watching the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s six pending XRP spot ETF applications, with decisions expected in October. Approval could unlock new institutional capital, while rejection risks exacerbating selling pressure. Additionally, Federal Reserve rate cut expectations at the September 17 meeting are shaping liquidity flows; a dovish outcome may reduce cash yields and shift interest toward risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Exchange Custody Dynamics

On-chain data shows exchange XRP balances at 12-month highs, signaling potential near-term distribution. This accumulation on custodial platforms raises concerns over forced selling if deposit outflows accelerate or macro conditions deteriorate. Conversely, whale accumulation patterns suggest larger holders may absorb selling and provide support.

Trader Focus

• Sustained closes above $2.95 may rebuild momentum toward the $3.02 resistance band.
• Monitoring shifts in exchange custody flows to gauge supply-demand balance.
• Tracking SEC ETF rulings and their impact on institutional sentiment.
• Positioning ahead of Fed’s rate decision and potential liquidity rotation.

Outlook

Failure to clear the $3.00 barrier keeps XRP range-bound, with volatility likely to persist until regulatory clarity arrives. Breakout or breakdown scenarios hinge on external catalysts — ETF approvals or monetary policy shifts. Traders and institutions will navigate these developments to assess XRP’s medium-term direction.