Seasonal Trends
Since 2013, Bitcoin has closed September in the red eight out of twelve times, averaging a −3.80% return. This recurrence, known as the “September Effect,” parallels broader risk asset patterns, where traders lock in summer gains ahead of Q4.
Historical Comparison
Each green September for Bitcoin followed a severe August correction. In 2017, a late-August shakeout below key support preceded a parabolic rally to $20,000. Current price action mirrors that cycle, with Bitcoin retesting a $105k-$110k base after an August pullback.
Technical Indicators
- Hidden Bullish Divergence: Despite price weakening, RSI has held higher lows, indicating latent buying momentum.
- Support Zone: $105k-$110k acted as resistance earlier in the year and now serves as critical demand area.
- Correlation Shift: The 52-week correlation between BTC and the U.S. Dollar Index dropped to −0.25, its weakest in two years, benefiting BTC as the dollar weakens.
Outlook
Analyst ZYN projects Bitcoin could revisit its all-time high above $124,500 within 4-6 weeks if technical patterns hold. A potential Fed rate cut in Q4, as suggested by CME’s 86.4% pricing, may drive further capital into crypto, accelerating a parabolic phase for both Bitcoin and altcoins.
Risks
September volatility, regulatory headlines, or unexpected macro shocks could trigger renewed selling. Traders should monitor RSI behavior around support and dollar-BTC correlation dynamics for early signs of trend continuation or reversal.
Conclusion
While historical seasonality cautions about September weakness, current technical setups and macro tailwinds suggest the potential for a bullish reversal, with targets near $124,500 if conditions align.
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