XRP experienced a significant upside move, breaching the $3 threshold for the first time in weeks. Trading volumes surged across major Korean exchanges, propelling the asset through short-term resistance at $2.87 and $2.97 before peaking at $3.02. The burst of buying interest followed multiple failed attempts to close above the $3 mark, demonstrating renewed momentum among retail and institutional participants.
On-chain data reveals that transactions originating from large wallets accounted for a substantial share of the volume spike. These wallets, identified as entities with holdings above 10 million XRP, executed sizable buy orders shortly after market open, indicating confidence in the token’s near-term outlook. Concurrently, the Spent Output Volume Ratio for XRP inflows rose sharply, highlighting the influx of newly traded tokens into active circulation.
The catalyst for the rally appears linked to two pivotal developments. First, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is set to deliberate on Ripple’s motion to withdraw its appeal on August 7 at 03:00 UTC. Market participants anticipate that a formal withdrawal might expedite a favorable ruling on XRP’s security classification, thereby reducing regulatory uncertainty. Second, Japan’s SBI Holdings submitted an application for a Bitcoin-XRP exchange-traded fund, underscoring growing global institutional backing for XRP as a diversified digital asset.
Technical analysis supports the bullish sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart climbed above 65, moving into overbought territory. However, momentum indicators suggest that strength could persist, as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram extended its positive reading. Key support now resides at the $2.95 level, a former resistance zone, with further upside targets eyed at $3.14 and $3.25 upon confirmation of $3.02 retests.
Derivative markets mirrored the spot rally, with XRP futures open interest rising by over 12% within 24 hours. Funding rates on perpetual swap contracts shifted from neutral to positive, reflecting an increasing cost for holders of short positions. Deribit and Binance traders particularly contributed to this shift, as open interest at both venues exceeded $900 million by midday.
Despite the bullish technical setup, analysts caution that elevated short-term positioning could induce profit-taking once the initial regulatory event concludes. Historical patterns show that XRP often retraces after sharp spikes, consolidating gains near critical moving averages. Nonetheless, market sentiment remains constructive, supported by on-chain metrics and renewed ETF interest in Asia.
Looking ahead, traders will monitor on-chain transparency reports from Ripple Labs to gauge potential token unlocks or sales that could impact supply dynamics. Additionally, the outcome of the SEC session will be pivotal in determining XRP’s classification, which has long been a central factor in price volatility. A clear regulatory directive may unlock further institutional flows, particularly through ETFs and custody products.
In conclusion, XRP’s surge past $3 reflects a convergence of technical breakout, institutional signals, and evolving regulatory clarity. While volatility remains a factor, the market’s ability to sustain levels above $3 will likely depend on continued supportive developments in both legal and market-access frameworks.
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